An online gambler made headlines after earning more than $400,000 by betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The bets were placed on Polymarket, a platform that allows users to wager cryptocurrency on real-world events. The gambler, who initially used the handle "Burdensome-Mix," wagered $32,000 on the prediction that the U.S. would invade Venezuela and topple Maduro by the end of January. This prediction came true when President Donald Trump ordered the operation, leading to the capture of Maduro and the gambler's significant profit.

The account, which joined Polymarket just weeks before the bet, has sparked concerns about the potential for insider trading on prediction markets. While most traders use pseudonyms, linking accounts to cryptocurrency wallets can sometimes reveal identities. However, Chainalysis, a company that tracks crypto theft, has not been able to identify the person behind the account.

NBC News reported that several other gamblers made similar, though much smaller bets on Maduro's capture.

The incident has reignited debates about the regulation of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Unlike the stock market, which is monitored by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), these platforms fall under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which has fewer resources.

The CFTC and Polymarket have not commented on the situation.

Christina Martinez